Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 27 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Orgryte IS's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Orgryte IS 1W, Ostersunds FK 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 67% and Ostersunds FK 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 60% | Ostersunds FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.362 / defence 0.848 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.705 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.345. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Orgryte IS games / 45 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 55% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Ostersunds FK lead the H2H ledger, but Orgryte IS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 50% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 55% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Orgryte IS 1.55 / Ostersunds FK 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.362 / def 0.848 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.705 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ostersunds FK xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Orgryte IS 6 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 55% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (7 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 3 | Ostersunds FK 3W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.36) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.70x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.92
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.36
0.80
Ostersunds FK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.80 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 20W 12D 13L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 14W 13D 18L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.22 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 6D 13L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.87 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 6-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 65%, Ostersunds FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Orgryte IS) and 35% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 44% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 35% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Ostersunds FK 6-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.55 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.80 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.36 / defence 0.85 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.70 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 55% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 60%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.60 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.