Orgryte IS 2-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 44%, yet in-form Orebro SK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Orebro SK travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Orebro SK are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 66% versus Orebro SK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 51% | Orebro SK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.51 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.971 / defence 1.189 | Orebro SK attack 0.704 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.413. Data: 41 Orgryte IS games / 11 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 29%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Orgryte IS 1.51 / Orebro SK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.971 / def 1.189 | Orebro SK attack 0.704 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Orebro SK xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 July 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS 2 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 44% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Orgryte IS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.97x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.80
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.69
1.18
Orebro SK xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.18 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 19D 13L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 9W 7D 25L from 41 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.12 PPG, Orebro SK on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (4W 11D 5L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 3W 3D 14L from 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.83 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 9W 19D 13L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 9W 7D 25L in their last 41 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Orebro SK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.15 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 5, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 65%, Orebro SK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Orgryte IS) and 60% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 30% of games; Orebro SK in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 40% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 60% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.51 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Orebro SK attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 29%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 51%, Orebro SK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG, Orebro SK 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.