Orgryte IS 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Orebro SK travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for Orebro SK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.049 / defence 0.911 | Orebro SK attack 0.977 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.212. Data: 33 Orgryte IS games / 33 Orebro SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 29%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Orebro SK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 80% | Orebro SK 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Orgryte IS 1.39 / Orebro SK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.049 / def 0.911 | Orebro SK attack 0.977 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Orebro SK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 44% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orgryte IS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Record (6 meetings): Orgryte IS 3W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.05x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.73
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.08
Orebro SK xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.08 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 14D 24L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 18W 19D 23L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.33 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 8D 18L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.33 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Orebro SK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.37 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 5, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 70%, Orebro SK at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Orgryte IS and 73% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Orgryte IS's games and 63% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Orgryte IS's matches and 73% of Orebro SK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Orebro SK attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 44% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 29%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.