Orgryte IS 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 23 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. GIF Sundsvall are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 57% versus GIF Sundsvall 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | GIF Sundsvall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.91 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.105 / defence 1.142 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.073 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.161. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Orgryte IS games / 7 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 29%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | GIF Sundsvall 3.45. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 50% | GIF Sundsvall 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Orgryte IS 1.91 / GIF Sundsvall 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.105 / def 1.142 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.073 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.42
GIF Sundsvall xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orgryte IS 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.45
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.33
1.42
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
4%
23.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.42 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 9W 10D 11L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 15W 8D 7L from 30 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, GIF Sundsvall are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orgryte IS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
GIF Sundsvall's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.13 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 47%, GIF Sundsvall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orgryte IS) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 33% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 60% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.91 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.42 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against GIF Sundsvall attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 29%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, GIF Sundsvall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.