Orgryte IS 1-4 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 4D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Gais are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orgryte IS 2W, Gais 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 61% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 61% | Gais 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.82 xG and Gais 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.787 / defence 1.286 | Gais attack 1.355 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.273. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gais's defence strength of 0.663 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gais have an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Orgryte IS games / 23 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 11% | Draw 20% | Gais 68%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 9.09 | Draw 5.00 | Gais 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Gais (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 11% | Draw 20% | Gais 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Orgryte IS 0.82 / Gais 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.787 / def 1.286 | Gais attack 1.355 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Gais (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Gais kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Orgryte IS 1 - 4 Gais.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Gais part of?
Orgryte IS vs Gais is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 11% chance of winning, Gais a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orgryte IS and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Gais (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.79x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (1.35x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
11%
8.78
20%
4.89
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.04
2.22
Gais xG
8.78
11%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
11%
9.20
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
1%
80.76
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 2.22 for Gais, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Orgryte IS's home form reads 2W 5D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.96 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Gais have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gais in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Gais have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 73%, Gais 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Orgryte IS and 64% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 54%; Gais in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Orgryte IS's games and 46% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Orgryte IS's matches and 64% of Gais's.
Do Orgryte IS and Gais tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gais in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Orgryte IS 1-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.82 xG and Gais 2.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gais outscored their 2.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Gais attack 1.35 / defence 0.66, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 11% | Draw 20% | Gais 68%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 61%, Gais 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.