Orgryte IS 4-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Falkenbergs FF have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 1.60 PPG lead over Falkenbergs FF (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.158 / defence 0.785 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.829 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.257. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Orgryte IS games / 5 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Falkenbergs FF 4.76. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Orgryte IS 1.44 / Falkenbergs FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.158 / def 0.785 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.829 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Orgryte IS 4 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 52% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.83x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.71
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.25
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.82 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. Falkenbergs FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orgryte IS by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Falkenbergs FF heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Orgryte IS's matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Falkenbergs FF 4-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.16 / defence 0.79 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 100%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Orgryte IS scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.