Orgryte IS 4-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Falkenbergs FF have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 2 games: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 1.60 PPG lead over Falkenbergs FF (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Falkenbergs FF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2021, ended Orgryte IS 1–1 Falkenbergs FF — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.158 / defence 0.785 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.829 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.257. Orgryte IS have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling Falkenbergs FF's projected output down. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 35 games and Falkenbergs FF's last 5.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.94 | Draw 3.71 | Falkenbergs FF 4.67. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Falkenbergs FF's last 2 games) averaging 3.7 goals per game points the other way.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.44 / Falkenbergs FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.158 / def 0.785 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.829 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Orgryte IS 4 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 52% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.83x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 35 games and Falkenbergs FF's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.71
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.25
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.82 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orgryte IS by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Falkenbergs FF heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Falkenbergs FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 18 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won Falkenbergs FF 3-0 Orgryte IS on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Falkenbergs FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Orgryte IS's matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Falkenbergs FF 4-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.16 / defence 0.79 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 21%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 100%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Orgryte IS scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.