Orebro SK 0-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Skövde AIK at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Skövde AIK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 0, Skövde AIK 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 43% versus Skövde AIK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 43% | Skövde AIK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.13 xG and Skövde AIK 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.795 / defence 1.012 | Skövde AIK attack 0.952 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.378. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Orebro SK games / 19 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 39%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Skövde AIK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Skövde AIK at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Skövde AIK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Orebro SK 1.13 / Skövde AIK 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.795 / def 1.012 | Skövde AIK attack 0.952 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Skövde AIK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK part of?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 30% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orebro SK and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 1 | Skövde AIK 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.80) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.28
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.46
1.33
Skövde AIK xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.33 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 5L across 21 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Skövde AIK by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.33 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Skövde AIK away?
Skövde AIK's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.60 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Skövde AIK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
2
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Skövde AIK 2-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, Skövde AIK 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 60% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Orebro SK's games and 70% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 60% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Skövde AIK edge out Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.13 xG and Skövde AIK 1.33 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Skövde AIK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 39%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 43%, Skövde AIK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.