Orebro SK 2-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Oddevold travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.68 xG and Oddevold 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.039 / defence 1.011 | Oddevold attack 0.815 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 0.989. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Orebro SK games / 10 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Oddevold 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 1.68 / Oddevold 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.039 / def 1.011 | Oddevold attack 0.815 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.320 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Oddevold xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Oddevold kick off?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Orebro SK 2 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Orebro SK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Oddevold part of?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 58% chance of winning, Oddevold a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Oddevold in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Orebro SK home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Oddevold's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.16
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.49
0.81
Oddevold xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
29.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.81 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Oddevold runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
4
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Oddevold have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orebro SK and Oddevold share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Oddevold finished level at 2-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.68 xG and Oddevold 0.81 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Oddevold attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 58% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 18%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.