Orebro SK 1-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Helsingborg meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Helsingborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Helsingborg haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Helsingborg's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for Helsingborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 3–2 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Helsingborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 44% | Helsingborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.20 xG and Helsingborg 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.794 / defence 0.831 | Helsingborg attack 0.677 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.124. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Orebro SK games / 8 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 31% | Helsingborg 20%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Helsingborg 5.00. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Helsingborg's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 50% | Helsingborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 31% | Helsingborg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Orebro SK 1.20 / Helsingborg 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.794 / def 0.831 | Helsingborg attack 0.677 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Helsingborg xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Helsingborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Helsingborg?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Helsingborg part of?
Orebro SK vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 50% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Orebro SK and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Helsingborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.68x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.24
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.83
0.63
Helsingborg xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
6%
16.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.63 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 10W 8D 14L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. Helsingborg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Helsingborg are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 7W 6D 3L from 16 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.56 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.31 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 26 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Helsingborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
5
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Helsingborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2026, when Orebro SK 1-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 56% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 44%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 50% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 56% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Orebro SK and Helsingborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.20 xG and Helsingborg 0.63 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Helsingborg attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 50% | Draw 31% | Helsingborg 20%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 44%, Helsingborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.