Orebro SK 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 23 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, AFC Eskilstuna in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus AFC Eskilstuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.55 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.929 / defence 0.910 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.107 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.441. Data: 8 Orebro SK games / 38 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 80% | AFC Eskilstuna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Orebro SK 1.55 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.929 / def 0.910 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.107 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.45
AFC Eskilstuna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 May 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Orebro SK 1 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 38% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (1.11x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.56
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.00
1.45
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.45 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 6D 12L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.33 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.80 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 60%, AFC Eskilstuna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orebro SK) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Orebro SK's matches and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.55 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.45 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.40 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.