Oddevold 0-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Helsingborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 20 July 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oddevold — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across their last 6 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oddevold are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Helsingborg have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Helsingborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Helsingborg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Oddevold's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 64% versus Helsingborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 57% | Helsingborg 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.14 xG and Helsingborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.753 / defence 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 0.985 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.139. Oddevold's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Oddevold's last 14 games and Helsingborg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.82 | Draw 3.51 | Helsingborg 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Oddevold's last 6 home games and Helsingborg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oddevold 67% (last 6 home games) | Helsingborg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 15 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Oddevold 1.14 / Helsingborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.753 / def 1.026 | Helsingborg attack 0.985 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Helsingborg xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oddevold vs Helsingborg FAQs
What time does Oddevold vs Helsingborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Oddevold 0 - 3 Helsingborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Helsingborg part of?
Oddevold vs Helsingborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 15) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 35% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oddevold and Helsingborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Oddevold vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.75) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oddevold's last 14 games and Helsingborg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.51
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.29
1.15
Helsingborg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oddevold vs Helsingborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.15 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 4W 5D 5L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.21 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
Oddevold (Home) vs Helsingborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oddevold
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Oddevold vs Helsingborg Form FAQs
What form are Oddevold and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.50 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jul 2024, when Helsingborg won Oddevold 0-3 Helsingborg.
Oddevold's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
2
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Oddevold vs Helsingborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Helsingborg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Oddevold have won 2, Helsingborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Helsingborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Oddevold 3-1 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 67%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Oddevold) and 67% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Oddevold keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg in 33%; Helsingborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oddevold vs Helsingborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oddevold and Helsingborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Oddevold's games and 50% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oddevold and Helsingborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Oddevold's recent games and 67% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Helsingborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Oddevold's recent matches and 83% of Helsingborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Oddevold 0-3 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.14 xG and Helsingborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Helsingborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 35% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 36%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 57%, Helsingborg 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.21 PPG, Helsingborg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.