Oddevold 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Oddevold welcome GIF Sundsvall to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIF Sundsvall — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oddevold, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.95 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.877 / defence 1.209 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.770 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.119. Data: 34 Oddevold games / 34 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 37%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | GIF Sundsvall 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Oddevold 0.95 / GIF Sundsvall 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.877 / def 1.209 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.770 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.04
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 32% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.88x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.99
1.04
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.04 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.20 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Oddevold's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.27 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oddevold or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oddevold) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 33% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Oddevold's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oddevold's recent games and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Oddevold 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Oddevold 1-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.95 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.04 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.77 / defence 0.80, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 37%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.