Norrby IF 1-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Norrby IF welcome Dalkurd FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalkurd FF — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dalkurd FF — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Norrby IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dalkurd FF in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.64 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.960 / defence 1.008 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.292. Data: 30 Norrby IF games / 0 Dalkurd FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 49% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Dalkurd FF 4.00. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalkurd FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 49% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Norrby IF 1.64 / Dalkurd FF 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.960 / def 1.008 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dalkurd FF xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Norrby IF 1 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 49% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (0.96) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.91
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
Dalkurd FF xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.11 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Norrby IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dalkurd FF's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalkurd FF.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF in 100%.
Defensively: Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Early Season
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Norrby IF or Dalkurd FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dalkurd FF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2022, when Dalkurd FF 2-1 Norrby IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Norrby IF's games and 100% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Norrby IF's recent games and 50% of Dalkurd FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norrby IF edge out Dalkurd FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Dalkurd FF 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.64 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalkurd FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 49% | Draw 26% | Dalkurd FF 25%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dalkurd FF managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.