Ljungskile SK 0-2 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ljungskile SK face United Nordic.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skarsjövallen plays host to Ljungskile SK versus United Nordic in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 2.33 xG and United Nordic 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.962 / defence 1.084 | United Nordic attack 0.919 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.217. United Nordic's defence rating of 1.474 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ljungskile SK's projected output up. Data: built from Ljungskile SK's last 4 games and United Nordic's last 4.
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 62% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 19%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 1.61 | Draw 5.25 | United Nordic 5.35. The model has a clear lean to Ljungskile SK (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.33 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ljungskile SK as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 62% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Ljungskile SK 2.33 / United Nordic 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.962 / def 1.084 | United Nordic attack 0.919 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
United Nordic xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic FAQs
What time does Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic?
Ljungskile SK 0 - 2 United Nordic.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic part of?
Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 62% chance of winning, United Nordic a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ljungskile SK and United Nordic will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ljungskile SK's attack rating (0.96) and United Nordic's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — United Nordic's attack (0.92x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Ljungskile SK's last 4 games and United Nordic's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.25
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
3.54
1.21
United Nordic xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
54.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.21 for United Nordic, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Ljungskile SK (Home) vs United Nordic (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
1
Draws
1
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ Ljungskile SK vs United Nordic H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and United Nordic?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ljungskile SK have won 0, United Nordic have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and United Nordic last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: United Nordic 2-2 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and United Nordic?
United Nordic have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
United Nordic cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ljungskile SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
United Nordic beat Ljungskile SK 0-2 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 2.33 xG and United Nordic 1.21 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ljungskile SK fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against United Nordic attack 0.92 / defence 1.47, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 62% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 19%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a United Nordic win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.