Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, Utsikten 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–5 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Utsikten — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Utsikten 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.254 / defence 0.994 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 0.894. Landskrona BoIS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Landskrona BoIS games / 34 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 4.55. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Utsikten 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.65 / Utsikten 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.254 / def 0.994 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.391 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Utsikten xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 52% chance of winning, Utsikten a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.25) and Utsikten's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.10x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.91
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.63
0.98
Utsikten xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.98 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 17D 21L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 26W 14D 20L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.53 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 13W 4D 13L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Utsikten away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Utsikten have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 73%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 47% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 43% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 47% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Utsikten 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Utsikten 0.98 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Utsikten attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Utsikten 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.