Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Landskrona BoIS. A 1.50 PPG lead over Ostersunds FK (1.70 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 59% versus Ostersunds FK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.15 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.175 / defence 1.123 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.562 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.268. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Landskrona BoIS games / 14 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 67% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 12%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Ostersunds FK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 80% | Ostersunds FK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 67% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.15 / Ostersunds FK 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.175 / def 1.123 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.562 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ostersunds FK xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 67% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.56x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.72
12%
8.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.95
0.80
Ostersunds FK xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
8.66
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
74.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.80 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 10D 16L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.48 PPG from 44 outings (4W 9D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 4D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.14 points per game from 21 outings (0W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.75 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 9D 31L in their last 44 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.19 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
5
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 67%, Ostersunds FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 48% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Ostersunds FK finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.15 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.80 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.56 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 67% | Draw 21% | Ostersunds FK 12%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.