Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.

Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Orgryte IS arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 0W, Orgryte IS 1W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Orgryte IS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 57% and Orgryte IS 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 47% | Orgryte IS 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.81 xG and Orgryte IS 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.049 / defence 1.144 | Orgryte IS attack 1.183 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.379. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Landskrona BoIS games / 33 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 40%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Orgryte IS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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