Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Orebro SK at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Orebro SK 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.024 / defence 0.992 | Orebro SK attack 0.879 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.129. Data: 37 Landskrona BoIS games / 37 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Orebro SK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.44 / Orebro SK 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.024 / def 0.992 | Orebro SK attack 0.879 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.02) and Orebro SK's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.60
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Orebro SK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.98 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 0.92 PPG from 60 outings (14W 13D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 19W 7D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (6W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.93 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orebro SK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.13 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 67%, Orebro SK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Landskrona BoIS) and 50% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 43% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 50% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Orebro SK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orebro SK 3-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Orebro SK attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 48%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.