Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Norrby IF travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Landskrona BoIS 0.90 PPG, Norrby IF 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Norrby IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Norrby IF trading profile (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Norrby IF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 49% | Norrby IF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.96 xG and Norrby IF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.994 / defence 0.982 | Norrby IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.293. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Landskrona BoIS games / 53 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 20%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Norrby IF 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Norrby IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.96 / Norrby IF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.994 / def 0.982 | Norrby IF attack 0.829 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Norrby IF xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 58% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 2 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 0.99x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.46
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Norrby IF xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
3%
36.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.05 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 20W 13D 20L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF's form line: 20W 15D 18L from 53 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.38 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.26 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 20W 13D 20L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Norrby IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.04 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Norrby IF have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 68%, Norrby IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Landskrona BoIS) and 52% (Norrby IF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 60% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 52% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Norrby IF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Norrby IF 3-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.96 xG and Norrby IF 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Norrby IF outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Norrby IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 58% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 20%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 49%, Norrby IF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Norrby IF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.