Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Landskrona BoIS, 1.20 for Jonkopings Sodra — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Jonkopings Sodra in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 2W, Jonkopings Sodra 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 61% versus Jonkopings Sodra 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 49% | Jonkopings Sodra 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.41 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.031 / defence 1.020 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.881 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.336. Data: 49 Landskrona BoIS games / 49 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 31%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.41 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.031 / def 1.020 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.881 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jonkopings Sodra xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.88x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.61
1.20
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.20 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 12D 19L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 15W 12D 22L from 49 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.16 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.22 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 12D 22L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.04 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 65%, Jonkopings Sodra 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Landskrona BoIS) and 48% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 48% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.41 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.20 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 31%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 49%, Jonkopings Sodra 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.35 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.