Landskrona BoIS 1-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Landskrona BoIS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 61% versus AFC Eskilstuna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.003 / defence 1.016 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.798 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.069. Data: 44 Landskrona BoIS games / 44 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | AFC Eskilstuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.61 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.003 / def 1.016 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.798 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.87
AFC Eskilstuna xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 55% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.00) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.02
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.48
0.87
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
24.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.87 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 16W 14D 14L from 44 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 20L across 44 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.41 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 12W 7D 3L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.32 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.95 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 77%, AFC Eskilstuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Landskrona BoIS) and 54% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 55% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 20%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a AFC Eskilstuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 48%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.41 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.