Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Stadsparksvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 0.50 for Ostersunds FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 57% versus Ostersunds FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 55% | Ostersunds FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 2.29 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.159 / defence 1.325 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.616 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.349. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Jonkopings Sodra games / 12 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 64% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Ostersunds FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | Ostersunds FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 64% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 2.29 / Ostersunds FK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.159 / def 1.325 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.616 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 64% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.62x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.28
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.40
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
9.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
58.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.10 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 10D 20L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 4W 8D 30L from 42 games, 0.48 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jonkopings Sodra are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 4D 17L from 21 away games — 0.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.76 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 8D 30L in their last 42 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.29 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
3
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 62%, Ostersunds FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 48% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 33% of games; Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 2.29 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.16 / defence 1.32 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 64% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 17%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 55%, Ostersunds FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.