Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vapenvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra at Vapenvallen this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Jonkopings Sodra, 1.20 for Osters IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jonkopings Sodra lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Osters IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 53% versus Osters IF 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jonkopings Sodra 53% | Osters IF 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 xG and Osters IF 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.121 / defence 1.209 | Osters IF attack 0.587 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.069. Data: 15 Jonkopings Sodra games / 15 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 4.76. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Osters IF 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 / Osters IF 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.121 / def 1.209 | Osters IF attack 0.587 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Osters IF xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 52% chance of winning, Osters IF a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.12x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.59x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.60
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
Osters IF xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.76 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 6W 3D 6L from 15 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 6L across 15 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.27 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osters IF's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.73 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 27%.
Defensively: Osters IF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Osters IF away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 2.00 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Osters IF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osters IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 4-0 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Osters IF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 57%, Osters IF 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 14% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 43%; Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 29% of games; Osters IF in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 14% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 14% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 14% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Osters IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Osters IF 2-1 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.38 xG and Osters IF 0.76 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.12 / defence 1.21 against Osters IF attack 0.59 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 52% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 21%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 53%, Osters IF 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.40 PPG, Osters IF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.