Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Jonkopings Sodra are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 3 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 60% versus AFC Eskilstuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.90 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.036 / defence 0.920 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.835 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.127. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Jonkopings Sodra games / 36 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
AFC Eskilstuna lead the H2H ledger, but Jonkopings Sodra carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.90 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.036 / def 0.920 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.835 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.87
AFC Eskilstuna xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 3 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 62% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (4 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 3W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.04x the league average against AFC Eskilstuna's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.60
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.77
0.87
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
40.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.87 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (23W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.23 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.37 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
4
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 63%, AFC Eskilstuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 30% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.90 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.87 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a AFC Eskilstuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.23 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.