IK brage 3-3 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IK brage (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IK brage face Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 4W 3D 3L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IK brage are significantly better at Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IK brage. A 0.60 PPG lead over Orebro SK (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, IK brage are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 3–0 with IK brage winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IK brage and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 65% and Orebro SK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 69% | Orebro SK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.43 xG and Orebro SK 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.325 / defence 1.267 | Orebro SK attack 0.807 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.337. IK brage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 IK brage games / 48 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 61% | Draw 19% | Orebro SK 20%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Orebro SK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 61% | Draw 19% | Orebro SK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG IK brage 2.43 / Orebro SK 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.325 / def 1.267 | Orebro SK attack 0.807 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: IK brage (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Orebro SK xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orebro SK kick off?
IK brage vs Orebro SK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
IK brage 3 - 3 Orebro SK.
Where is IK brage vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orebro SK part of?
IK brage vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 61% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both IK brage and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
Record (9 meetings): IK brage 6W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 2W.
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.81x) against IK brage's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.34
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.80
1.37
Orebro SK xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
9%
11.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
2%
55.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for IK brage and 1.37 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 13D 19L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 8W 16D 24L from 48 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IK brage are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Orebro SK in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 8W 16D 24L in their last 48 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orebro SK away?
IK brage's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.17 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IK brage
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 6, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when IK brage 3-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orebro SK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for IK brage, 74% for Orebro SK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for IK brage and 56% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of IK brage's games and 74% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of IK brage's matches and 56% of Orebro SK's.
Do IK brage and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Orebro SK finished level at 3-3 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.43 xG and Orebro SK 1.37 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Orebro SK outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.32 / defence 1.27 against Orebro SK attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 61% | Draw 19% | Orebro SK 20%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 69%, Orebro SK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.