IK brage 0-4 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Gais at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.62 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.10 PPG versus Gais's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IK brage, 2 for Gais and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Gais in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 59% versus Gais 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 53% | Gais 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.20 xG and Gais 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.159 / defence 0.978 | Gais attack 0.834 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.154. Gais's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 IK brage games / 17 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 41% | Draw 30% | Gais 28%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Gais 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Gais 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 41% | Draw 30% | Gais 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG IK brage 1.20 / Gais 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.159 / def 0.978 | Gais attack 0.834 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: IK brage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gais xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Gais kick off?
IK brage vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Gais?
IK brage 0 - 4 Gais.
Where is IK brage vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Gais part of?
IK brage vs Gais is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 41% chance of winning, Gais a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IK brage and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 2W.
What form are IK brage and Gais in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gais (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.16) and Gais's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.28
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.14
0.94
Gais xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IK brage and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for IK brage and 0.94 for Gais, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 3D 8L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.24 PPG, Gais on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.41 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Gais in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Gais have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Gais away?
IK brage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.62 PPG.
Have IK brage or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gais in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Gais won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Gais specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IK brage
0
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Gais have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when IK brage 0-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 75%, Gais 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IK brage) and 50% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 50%; Gais in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of IK brage's games and 50% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of IK brage's matches and 50% of Gais's.
Do IK brage and Gais tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Gais in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-4 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IK brage 0-4 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.20 xG and Gais 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.83 / defence 0.74, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 41% | Draw 30% | Gais 28%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 53%, Gais 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.24 PPG, Gais 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.