IFK Varnamo 1-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF meet at Finnvedsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Varnamo's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 7W 2D 1L at Finnvedsvallen — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Norrby IF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Varnamo. A 1.00 PPG lead over Norrby IF (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Varnamo lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Norrby IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 41% versus Norrby IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 38% | Norrby IF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.246 / defence 1.002 | Norrby IF attack 0.979 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Data: 29 IFK Varnamo games / 29 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 30%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Norrby IF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 50% | Norrby IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.50 / Norrby IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.246 / def 1.002 | Norrby IF attack 0.979 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Norrby IF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 43% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 1.25x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.98x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.65
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
Norrby IF xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.21 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 29 games, going 18W 5D 6L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
IFK Varnamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 11W 2D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.34 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Norrby IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 18W 5D 6L in their last 29 games (2.03 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Norrby IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.50 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 0, Norrby IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 43%, Norrby IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (IFK Varnamo) and 43% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Norrby IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 50% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 43% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.25 / defence 1.00 against Norrby IF attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 30%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 38%, Norrby IF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Norrby IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Norrby IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.