IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK meet at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.998 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.241. Data: 0 IF Brommapojkarna games / 30 Vasteras SK FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 31% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 42%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 31% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 / Vasteras SK FK 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.998 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Vasteras SK FK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 31% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Vasteras SK FK away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (0.85) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.00x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.67
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.60
1.42
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.42 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.42 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 31% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 42%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.