IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.54 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.015 / defence 1.137 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.994 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.392. Data: 4 IF Brommapojkarna games / 34 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 37% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 37% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.54 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.015 / def 1.137 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.994 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Jonkopings Sodra xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 37% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.01x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.21
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.12
1.57
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.57 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Jonkopings Sodra?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.54 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.57 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 37% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.