Helsingborg 1-0 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Akropolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Akropolis in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 11 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Olympia — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Akropolis have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Akropolis have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Helsingborg. A 0.60 PPG lead over Akropolis (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Akropolis half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 30% versus Akropolis 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Helsingborg 30% | Akropolis 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.27 xG and Akropolis 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.960 / defence 1.191 | Akropolis attack 0.764 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 0.896 / away 1.008. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Helsingborg games / 10 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 27%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Akropolis 3.70. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 20% | Akropolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Helsingborg 1.27 / Akropolis 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.960 / def 1.191 | Akropolis attack 0.764 / def 1.481 | league avg home 0.896 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Akropolis xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Akropolis kick off?
Helsingborg vs Akropolis kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Akropolis?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 Akropolis.
Where is Helsingborg vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Akropolis part of?
Helsingborg vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 45% chance of winning, Akropolis a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Helsingborg and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Akropolis in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Akropolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Akropolis's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Akropolis's attack (0.76x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.50
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.19
0.92
Akropolis xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.92 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akropolis, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 4L across 10 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Helsingborg by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akropolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akropolis's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akropolis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Akropolis in 60%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Akropolis away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Akropolis away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Akropolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Akropolis in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
0
Draws
0
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Akropolis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2021, when Akropolis 0-3 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Akropolis?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 20%, Akropolis 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Helsingborg and 40% for Akropolis.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 60% of games; Akropolis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Akropolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 60% of Akropolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Helsingborg's recent games and 40% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Akropolis tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Akropolis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Akropolis 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.27 xG and Akropolis 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Akropolis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Akropolis attack 0.76 / defence 1.48, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 45% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 27%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 30%, Akropolis 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Akropolis's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.