GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 0W, Trelleborg 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Trelleborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 38% | Trelleborg 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.34 xG and Trelleborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.116 / defence 1.028 | Trelleborg attack 0.841 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.137. Data: 21 GIF Sundsvall games / 22 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 28%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 3.57. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Trelleborg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.34 / Trelleborg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.116 / def 1.028 | Trelleborg attack 0.841 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Trelleborg xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.12) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.84x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.32
0.98
Trelleborg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.98 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 21 games, going 11W 4D 6L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.62 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 7W 2D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.33 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 4D 6L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Trelleborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.09 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 46%, Trelleborg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIF Sundsvall) and 36% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 64% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 36% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.34 xG and Trelleborg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Trelleborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 28%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 38%, Trelleborg 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trelleborg's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.76 PPG, Trelleborg 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.