GIF Sundsvall 4-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 June 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 3W, Trelleborg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Trelleborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Trelleborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.16 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.755 / defence 0.962 | Trelleborg attack 0.562 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.331. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 GIF Sundsvall games / 42 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Trelleborg 4.35. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Trelleborg's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Trelleborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jun 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.16 / Trelleborg 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.755 / def 0.962 | Trelleborg attack 0.562 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Trelleborg xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 June 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall 4 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 46% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
Record (6 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 3W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.76) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.56x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.24
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
1.88
0.72
Trelleborg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.72 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (22W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.35 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Trelleborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.40 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Trelleborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GIF Sundsvall) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 53% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 4-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.16 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Trelleborg attack 0.56 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, Trelleborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.