GIF Sundsvall 0-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 44%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as GIF Sundsvall welcome Oddevold to NP3 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at NP3 Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, GIF Sundsvall have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Oddevold 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Oddevold in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 49% versus Oddevold 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Oddevold 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.72 xG and Oddevold 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.905 / defence 0.955 | Oddevold attack 0.909 / defence 0.580. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.281. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.580 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 GIF Sundsvall games / 49 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 33% | Oddevold 44%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Oddevold 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — GIF Sundsvall's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Oddevold 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 33% | Oddevold 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.72 / Oddevold 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.905 / def 0.955 | Oddevold attack 0.909 / def 0.580 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Oddevold xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 23% chance of winning, Oddevold a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.91) and Oddevold's defence rating (0.58), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
23%
4.39
33%
3.00
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
1.83
1.11
Oddevold xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.11 for Oddevold, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 12D 18L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.39 PPG from 49 outings (17W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.41 PPG, Oddevold on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.33 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.50 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oddevold in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Oddevold have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 58%, Oddevold 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 54% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oddevold in 38%; Oddevold in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 54% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out GIF Sundsvall 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat GIF Sundsvall 0-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.72 xG and Oddevold 1.11 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Oddevold attack 0.91 / defence 0.58, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 33% | Oddevold 44%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Oddevold 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.41 PPG, Oddevold 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Oddevold (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.