GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.57 xG and Norrby IF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.050 / defence 1.311 | Norrby IF attack 0.873 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 0.831. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 GIF Sundsvall games / 2 Norrby IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 22%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Norrby IF 4.55. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.57 / Norrby IF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.050 / def 1.311 | Norrby IF attack 0.873 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.197 / away 0.831 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Norrby IF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 51% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.87x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.78
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.53
0.95
Norrby IF xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 1-4 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
From 3 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Norrby IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Norrby IF 2-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.57 xG and Norrby IF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against Norrby IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 22%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.