Gefle IF 1-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Utsikten travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.06 xG and Utsikten 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.840 / defence 1.036 | Utsikten attack 1.244 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.027. Utsikten have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Gefle IF games / 33 Utsikten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 30% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 43%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 30% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gefle IF 1.06 / Utsikten 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.840 / def 1.036 | Utsikten attack 1.244 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Utsikten xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Utsikten kick off?
Gefle IF vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Gefle IF 1 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Gefle IF vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Utsikten part of?
Gefle IF vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 30% chance of winning, Utsikten a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gefle IF and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Utsikten in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Utsikten away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gefle IF's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.64
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Utsikten xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.32 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Utsikten runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gefle IF's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
3
Draws
0
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Utsikten have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Gefle IF 2-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Utsikten?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gefle IF and Utsikten share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 4, as Gefle IF and Utsikten drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.06 xG and Utsikten 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Utsikten attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 30% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 43%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.