Gais 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host GIF Sundsvall at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 2W 2D 6L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. GIF Sundsvall are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gais register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, GIF Sundsvall in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gais have won 0, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 38% versus GIF Sundsvall 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 38% | GIF Sundsvall 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.92 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.830 / defence 1.451 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.983 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Data: 29 Gais games / 29 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 18% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 56%. Fair-value odds: Gais 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | GIF Sundsvall 1.79. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gais 60% | GIF Sundsvall 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 18% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Gais 0.92 / GIF Sundsvall 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.830 / def 1.451 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.983 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Gais vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Gais 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Gais vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 18% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Gais and GIF Sundsvall in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.83x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
18%
5.42
25%
3.98
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Gais xG
Total xG
2.67
1.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
3%
31.49
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gais and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gais and 1.76 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Gais have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 9W 4D 16L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 15W 8D 6L from 29 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D.
Put side by side, GIF Sundsvall are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gais.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 9W 4D 16L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
GIF Sundsvall's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.00 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Gais or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Gais won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Gais 3-3 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 57%, GIF Sundsvall 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 36% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 29% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gais's games and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.92 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.76 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 18% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 56%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 38%, GIF Sundsvall 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Gais winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.