Falkenbergs FF 0-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Falkenbergs FF face Varbergs BoIS FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Falkenbergs FF welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan (matchday 7). Kick-off is Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Falkenbergs FF have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Falkenbergs FF 1.70 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Varbergs BoIS FC — a Varbergs BoIS FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Falkenbergs FF trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 50% and Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 63% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.56 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.903 / defence 0.732 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.084 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Falkenbergs FF have a tight defence (rating 0.732), which is pulling Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output down. Data: built from Falkenbergs FF's last 36 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 36.

Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 49% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.05 | Draw 3.94 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.86. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Falkenbergs FF's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Falkenbergs FF 30% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 90% (last 10 away games).

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