Dalkurd FF 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dalkurd FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Studenternas IP plays host to Dalkurd FF versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Dalkurd FF (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalkurd FF's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 1.40 for Ostersunds FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dalkurd FF 0W, Ostersunds FK 1W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Dalkurd FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 50% versus Ostersunds FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 57% | Ostersunds FK 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.29 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.887 / defence 1.207 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.744 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.323. Data: 26 Dalkurd FF games / 26 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 38% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalkurd FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalkurd FF 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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