Dalkurd FF 2-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Dalkurd FF welcome Norrby IF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Dalkurd FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 0D 5L from 9 Superettan appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalkurd FF 1.20 PPG, Norrby IF 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalkurd FF, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Norrby IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dalkurd FF in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 33% versus Norrby IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 44% | Norrby IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.37 xG and Norrby IF 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.762 / defence 1.217 | Norrby IF attack 0.991 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.292. Dalkurd FF's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Dalkurd FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Dalkurd FF games / 46 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 40%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Norrby IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norrby IF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalkurd FF 44% | Norrby IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.37 / Norrby IF 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.762 / def 1.217 | Norrby IF attack 0.991 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Norrby IF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF?
Dalkurd FF 2 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 32% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Dalkurd FF 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalkurd FF's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.60
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.93
1.56
Norrby IF xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.56 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Dalkurd FF have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 4D 9L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF's form line: 7W 3D 8L from 18 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalkurd FF on 1.06 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalkurd FF have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (3W 0D 5L).
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dalkurd FF are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalkurd FF at home or Norrby IF away?
Dalkurd FF's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalkurd FF at home: 1.12 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2022, when Dalkurd FF 2-1 Norrby IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalkurd FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalkurd FF 38%, Norrby IF 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Dalkurd FF and 75% for Norrby IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Dalkurd FF's games and 75% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dalkurd FF's matches and 75% of Norrby IF's.
Do Dalkurd FF and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalkurd FF defy the odds to beat Norrby IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Norrby IF 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.37 xG and Norrby IF 1.56 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.76 / defence 1.22 against Norrby IF attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 40%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dalkurd FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 44%, Norrby IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalkurd FF 1.06 PPG, Norrby IF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalkurd FF win broke the near-deadlock. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.