Dalkurd FF 0-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Studenternas IP to take on Dalkurd FF. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalkurd FF — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Brommapojkarna are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalkurd FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dalkurd FF, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2022, ended 0–5 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 43% versus IF Brommapojkarna 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 57% | IF Brommapojkarna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.31 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.815 / defence 1.208 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.962 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.361. Data: 21 Dalkurd FF games / 21 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 30% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 42%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalkurd FF 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 30% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.31 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.815 / def 1.208 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.962 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.58
IF Brommapojkarna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Dalkurd FF 0 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 30% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Dalkurd FF 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalkurd FF's attack rating (0.81) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
30%
3.33
28%
3.61
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.89
1.58
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.58 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalkurd FF's recent record stands at 5W 3D 13L from 21 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 4L across 21 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalkurd FF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dalkurd FF have managed 3W 0D 7L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalkurd FF are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 5W 3D 13L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalkurd FF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalkurd FF at home: 0.90 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2022, when Dalkurd FF 0-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalkurd FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dalkurd FF at 60%, IF Brommapojkarna at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Dalkurd FF and 50% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dalkurd FF's games and 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Dalkurd FF's matches and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Dalkurd FF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Dalkurd FF 0-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.31 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.58 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalkurd FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 30% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 42%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 57%, IF Brommapojkarna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.