Akropolis 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akropolis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grimsta IP plays host to Akropolis versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.934 / defence 1.201 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.900 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 0.731. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Akropolis games / 3 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Akropolis 43% | Draw 37% | GIF Sundsvall 20%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | GIF Sundsvall 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akropolis at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akropolis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 43% | Draw 37% | GIF Sundsvall 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Akropolis 1.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.934 / def 1.201 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.900 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.070 / away 0.731 • Poisson stance: Akropolis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
0.79
GIF Sundsvall xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall?
Akropolis 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 43% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Akropolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Akropolis's attack rating (0.93) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.90x) against Akropolis's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akropolis Win
43%
2.30
37%
2.70
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.05
0.79
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.30
43%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Akropolis and 0.79 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Akropolis
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 0, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2021, when GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis and GIF Sundsvall finished level at 1-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.79 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 43% | Draw 37% | GIF Sundsvall 20%, with Akropolis to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.