AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osters IF (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AFC Eskilstuna face Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Osters IF travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Osters IF are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AFC Eskilstuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osters IF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 2 for Osters IF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2022, ended 2–3 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 55% versus Osters IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 55% | Osters IF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.004 / defence 1.056 | Osters IF attack 0.920 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.321. Data: 56 AFC Eskilstuna games / 56 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 35% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 36%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Osters IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Osters IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 35% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 / Osters IF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.004 / def 1.056 | Osters IF attack 0.920 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Osters IF xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 35% chance of winning, Osters IF a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 2W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.00) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.47
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Osters IF xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.28 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 22W 10D 24L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 14L across 56 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.36 PPG, Osters IF on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 15W 5D 8L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osters IF's away record stands at 9W 10D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.36 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 22W 10D 24L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 24W 18D 14L in their last 56 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Osters IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.79 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.32 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Osters IF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 54%, Osters IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 39% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osters IF in 32%; Osters IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 50% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 39% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Osters IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 35% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 55%, Osters IF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.36 PPG, Osters IF 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.