AFC Eskilstuna 2-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tunavallen, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
IK brage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for AFC Eskilstuna, 1.30 for IK brage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IK brage in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: AFC Eskilstuna 1W, IK brage 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IK brage — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Eskilstuna 58% and IK brage 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 56% | IK brage 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG and IK brage 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.101 / defence 0.969 | IK brage attack 1.199 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.315. Data: 52 AFC Eskilstuna games / 52 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 26% | IK brage 37%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | IK brage 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 26% | IK brage 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 / IK brage 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.101 / def 0.969 | IK brage attack 1.199 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IK brage xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 3 IK brage.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 37% chance of winning, IK brage a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 1 | IK brage 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. IK brage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.10x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.20x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.91
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.06
1.53
IK brage xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.53 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 21W 10D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 20W 16D 16L from 52 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.46 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IK brage have gone 9W 9D 7L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 21W 10D 21L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while IK brage have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or IK brage away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.88 PPG; IK brage away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for AFC Eskilstuna, 76% for IK brage — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 64% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 76% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 64% of IK brage's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, IK brage in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-3 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.53 xG and IK brage 1.53 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against IK brage attack 1.20 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 26% | IK brage 37%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 56%, IK brage 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.40 PPG, IK brage 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.