AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 39%, yet in-form Helsingborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helsingborg make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 7W 2D 0L at Tunavallen — 2.56 PPG. They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Helsingborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Helsingborg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Eskilstuna lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (AFC Eskilstuna 44% | Helsingborg 22%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 44% | Helsingborg 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 xG and Helsingborg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.408 / defence 0.915 | Helsingborg attack 0.991 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.087. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helsingborg's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 AFC Eskilstuna games / 18 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 31%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Helsingborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Helsingborg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 44% | Helsingborg 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 / Helsingborg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.408 / def 0.915 | Helsingborg attack 0.991 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Helsingborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 39% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.41) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.99x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.39
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.13
0.99
Helsingborg xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.99 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 7W 4D 7L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 10W 4D 4L from 18 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Helsingborg are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Eskilstuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2.56 PPG from 9 outings (7W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.44 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg in 22%.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Helsingborg away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.56 PPG; Helsingborg away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Helsingborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Helsingborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2023, when Helsingborg 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 11% (Helsingborg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 33% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Helsingborg in 78%; Helsingborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 11% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 33% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna and Helsingborg finished level at 2-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 xG and Helsingborg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helsingborg outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.41 / defence 0.92 against Helsingborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.74, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 31%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 44%, Helsingborg 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.