AFC Eskilstuna 0-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna host Dalkurd FF at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna at Tunavallen this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG, Dalkurd FF 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Dalkurd FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 2–3 with Dalkurd FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 76% versus Dalkurd FF 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 71% | Dalkurd FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.270 / defence 0.976 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.645 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.299. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 AFC Eskilstuna games / 15 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 10%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Dalkurd FF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Dalkurd FF 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 / Dalkurd FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.270 / def 0.976 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.645 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Dalkurd FF xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 70% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.27x the league average against Dalkurd FF's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
70%
1.44
20%
4.98
10%
9.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.12
0.82
Dalkurd FF xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
9.65
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
96.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.82 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 1D 6L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalkurd FF sit at 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Dalkurd FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 6W 0D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalkurd FF have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 10W 1D 6L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Dalkurd FF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.25 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-0 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 75%, Dalkurd FF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 38% (Dalkurd FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Dalkurd FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 25% of Dalkurd FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 38% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AFC Eskilstuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna and Dalkurd FF finished level at 0-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.82 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Dalkurd FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.27 / defence 0.98 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Draw 20% | Dalkurd FF 10%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 71%, Dalkurd FF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.