Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host IF Elfsborg at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 0.40 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus IF Elfsborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 47% | IF Elfsborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / defence 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.903 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.293. Data: 1 Vasteras SK FK games / 31 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 90% | IF Elfsborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.27 / IF Elfsborg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / def 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.903 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.80
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.61
1.34
IF Elfsborg xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.34 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 6W 5D 19L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 12W 4D 14L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasteras SK FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 9L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 4D 14L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.00 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, IF Elfsborg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 53% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; IF Elfsborg in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 33% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 53% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg finished level at 2-2 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 39%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 47%, IF Elfsborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.