Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome IF Elfsborg to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 57% and IF Elfsborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.090 / defence 1.086 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.074 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.973. Data: 31 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 31 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 80% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 / IF Elfsborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.090 / def 1.086 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.074 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 April 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 42% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.09) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.62
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.13 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 3L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.60 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Varbergs BoIS FC at 73%, IF Elfsborg at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 47% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 30%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.