Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Degerfors IF to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Degerfors IF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 67% versus Degerfors IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 52% | Degerfors IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.83 xG and Degerfors IF 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.815 / defence 0.886 | Degerfors IF attack 0.788 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.061. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 21 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 62% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 13%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Degerfors IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 62% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.83 / Degerfors IF 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.815 / def 0.886 | Degerfors IF attack 0.788 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Degerfors IF xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 62% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.93
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.57
0.74
Degerfors IF xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
2%
48.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.74 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 6D 8L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.29 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Degerfors IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
7
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Degerfors IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.83 xG and Degerfors IF 0.74 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Degerfors IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.54, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 62% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 13%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, Degerfors IF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.29 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.