Sirius 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sirius, 1.30 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sirius 1W, Mjallby AIF 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 53% versus Mjallby AIF 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 58% | Mjallby AIF 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.14 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.977 / defence 0.983 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.822 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.117. Data: 45 Sirius games / 45 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 28%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Sirius 1.14 / Mjallby AIF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.977 / def 0.983 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.822 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.98) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.82x) against Sirius's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.20
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.04
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sirius and 0.90 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 10D 19L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (15W 16D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Sirius against 1.36 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 11W 2D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.11 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 16D 14L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Sirius's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.67 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sirius or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sirius
2
Draws
7
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 43%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sirius) and 29% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sirius's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sirius's recent games and 29% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.14 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 28%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 58%, Mjallby AIF 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.29 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.