Sirius 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 39%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mjallby AIF are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mjallby AIF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 66% and Mjallby AIF 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 58% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.28 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.851 / defence 1.027 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.966 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.094. Data: 38 Sirius games / 38 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 39% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 29%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Mjallby AIF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 39% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Sirius 1.28 / Mjallby AIF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.851 / def 1.027 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.966 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Sirius (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 39% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.85) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.97x) against Sirius's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
39%
2.60
33%
3.07
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Mjallby AIF xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sirius and 1.09 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 14D 13L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (15W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Sirius against 1.50 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 6W 7D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.42 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Sirius's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.39 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sirius
2
Draws
7
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Sirius, 61% for Mjallby AIF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sirius) and 50% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sirius's games and 61% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sirius's matches and 50% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.28 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 39% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 29%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 58%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.24 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.